AI Search

AIO Erosion (Suspected)

A per-query heuristic for AI Overviews impact. Google Search Console does not let us combine its searchAppearance dimension with the query dimension, so we cannot prove per-query AIO presence from GSC alone. Instead, we surface queries with the classic AIO fingerprint and only fire the report when site-level AIO impressions actually rose in the window.

When the report fires

Two conditions must both be true:

  1. Site-level AIO ramp. The window is split in half; the second half must either start from zero AIO impressions or grow by ≥25% versus the first half. Otherwise we don't have enough signal to attribute per-query CTR changes to AIO, so the report shows a notice instead of rows.
  2. Per-query pattern match. The query must show: impressions ±30% (held steady), and CTR drop ≥30% (relative) vs the immediately preceding equal-length window.

How we compute it

  1. Aggregate every query in the current and prior equal-length windows from gsc_query_day.
  2. Inner-join on query; keep rows where impressions ≥ 50 in both windows.
  3. Keep rows where impressions held (within ±30%) but CTR fell by ≥30% relative.
  4. Compute estimated clicks lost as max(0, prior_ctr − current_ctr) × current_impressions.
  5. Sort by estimated clicks lost, descending.

How to read each row

  • Query — the search term whose CTR collapsed.
  • Impressions — current-window total. Stable vs prior is the whole point.
  • Prior CTR / Current CTR — the before-and-after that triggered the row.
  • CTR Drop — relative drop, negative because CTR fell.
  • Estimated Clicks Lost — the upper bound on impact for this query in this window. Sort by this column to triage by upside.
  • Avg Position — your impression-weighted position. If you're still ranking the same, a snippet rewrite has the best shot of clawing back clicks.

What to do with it

  1. Open the top 5 queries in a private browser session and check the SERP — verify AIO is actually present.
  2. Find the page ranking for each query. Rewrite the title and meta description with a differentiating angle that AIO summaries don't capture: a fresh date, a contrarian take, a specific number, a guarantee, a brand voice.
  3. Add structured FAQ or HowTo schema where the intent matches — that's how some publishers earn placement inside the AIO and convert it back into clicks.
  4. Re-check after 2–3 weeks. Rows that drop off the list are wins.

Caveats & limits

  • Heuristic, not proof. A query can fit the fingerprint for other reasons — a new competitor, a SERP layout change, seasonal intent shift. Treat rows as strong candidates that need a human SERP check.
  • Queries with very low impressions are filtered out (≥50 in both windows). For sites where your top queries sit below this threshold, widen the date range.
  • The 30% CTR-drop threshold is conservative. Real-world AIO erosion can be subtler; you'll catch the worst offenders here, not every affected query.

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